WELCOME TO LOCK PICKER BETTING

A New Era in Betting

        Welcome fanatics, degenerates, and all other gambler alike! My name is Thommy Doggs, and this is the Lock Picker Betting blog. I decided I wanted to make this blog to give people not only a free, but also fun and interactive environment to gather, talk picks, trends, advice, and anything else sports related all in one place. I've been betting on sports for around two years now and like you, I've visited a lot of different sites, pages, and blogs looking for any sort of advantage I could get. What I want this blog to be is a collection of my daily research into lines and trends in most sports across the board, and then a breakdown on which picks and props to take based on the research findings.

    As a gambler, I've always wondered what my lifetime record was as well as what my lifetime earnings or losings are. With this blog, I will resurrect my gambling life like a phoenix, and rise out of the ashes a new unscathed man with a record of 0-0-0. My goal is going to be to put out three posts a week, most likely Monday-Wednesday-Friday, giving picks on some of the bigger games or games that I feel strongly about. I'll make sure to include some of the Props available on sites like DraftKings, Barstool Sportsbook, and FanDuel. I don't personally use Cesar or any other site, but if I get positive feedback about other sites, you guys use, I'd be more than happy to go make money on them.

    This being the introductory post of Lock Picker, I feel it would be wrong for me to sign off before giving you all at least one lock. Today is March 28th, 2023, and tonight at 10pm eastern, the New Orleans Pelicans travel to the Bay Area to take on the Golden State Warriors. I have formatted this so that you can look at the research collected and formulate a pick of your own before seeing what I'm giving out. At the end, I'll share the picks we're going with, and their odds. If our picks line up, its destiny and you should not only go bet responsibly on it, but also go subscribe and share this blog. 

Odds:

NOLA:             +8.5           o234              Money Line                          

                    -110            -110                   +290                           

GSW:              -8.5             u234              Money Line                          

                 -110            -110                   -370                           

Injuries:

NOLA

Zion Williamson- PF:           Out

Jose Alvarado- PG:               Out

EJ Liddell- PF:                      Out

GSW

Andrew Wiggens- SF          Out

Draymond Green- PF          Probable

Andre Iguodala- SF             Out

Gary Paton II- PG                Probable

Jordan Poole- SG                 Probable

Ryan Rollins- PG                 Out

    New Orleans Breakdown:

        Defense    

New Orleans is on a five-game winning streak and have been averaging 121.2 ppg and allowing 108.2 ppg on defense in that span. Their defenses rank 15th in the league in points allowed per game with 112.4 ppg this season, and their blocks per game is already ranked 23rd in the league with Zion, so they will definitely struggle down low without him. One thing that does worry me is the perimeter defense of the Pelicans. They rank 1st in opponent 3pt%. They also rank 2nd in steals, but that should be impacted by Alvarado's absence.  

        Offense

    The Pelicans offense has struggled with consistency this year, coming in at the middle of the pack at 15th ranked offensive scoring team in the league averaging 114.4 ppg. Their offense is one of the most mediocre in the league statistically. They rank 11th-15th in almost every category except their 3pt% is towards the bottom ranked 23rd, shooting only 30% from beyond the arch. This means they will most likely resort to banging in the paint and scoring down low which should be efficient against a smaller Warriors line up.

Golden State Breakdown:

        Defense

    Golden State is 3-2 in their last five games, averaging 116.6 ppg and allowing 115.4 ppg on defense in that span. Their defense is ranked 25th in the league in points allowed with 117.7 ppg this season. They are in the bottom half of the league in almost every defensive category. They don't rank top 10 in any defensive categories, and their highest ranking is 12th in opponents field goal percentage. Fortunately for us over betters, New Orleans likes to score down low a lot which means they will most likely shoot at a higher clip tonight against the warriors.

        Offense  

    The reigning champs have never been known for their stout defense during their dynasty. They have six finals appearances over the last decade, and they got there shooting the ball and outscoring opponents with crushing threes. This season, the Dubs are ranked 2nd in offensive scoring with 118.2 ppg. While New Orleans has a strong perimeter defense, they'll have to play perfect as Golden State is ranked 1st in 3's made, 1st in 3's attempted, and 3rd in 3pt%. They're also first in assists which is big for scoring points because that means they can move the ball around and avoid getting trapped in defenses.

        I hope this stuff got the gears turning and helped you decide what you like in tonight's game. After absolutely crunching every single number imaginable (definitely didn't leave any out), I've come to a decision. With the first ever pick on the Lock Picker blog, Thommy Doggs selects..... under 234 points. I know you're probably mad, probably thinking "Man, just read a great blog all for this guy to give the under" but wait! You didn't come here hoping I'd root for points, you came here hoping I'd give you a winner, and that's what I did. Under 234 is the line right now in almost every book so you can get it for around -110. Now, I will say that you don't get the name Thommy Doggs by always picking favorites. I will be giving out underdogs if I think they look hungry enough, which they often do. Since today is a special occasion, I will also be giving out a player prop as a little bit of a bonus pick. Bonus picks and props will be going towards my record just the same as any other pick would. Staying in the Bay Area, I love Klay Thompson to have 3 or more assists tonight at +150 odds. They are going to be dishing it to Klay on the perimeter and with the close out speed of the Pelicans, I can see Klay finding cuts for easy assists. Lock 'em in.

Thommy Dogg$ Plays

2 units on u234 total points in the Golden State - New Orleans game at -110 odds (net 1.4u)

1.5 unit on Klay Thompson o2.5 assists at +150 odds (net 2.25u)

Note to Reader!

    With March Madness wrapping up, I'll most likely be focusing on NBA for the next few weeks and MLB once it starts up. I'm going to try to follow College Baseball for a bit and familiarize myself with it before I start giving out picks on it. Thanks for reading and share if you enjoyed it!