MLB Opening Day 2023
What's up guys? We're back and ready to right all wrongs! Klay Thompson hurt us the other night, and we won't soon forget this, but it's time to move on! Today we have a tasty slate in front of us with the Opening Day of the MLB for the 2023 season. These early games are often difficult to pick because we haven't yet seen how well some of these teams play together or hoe some of these new rule changes affect the game. What we know right now is the pitch clock has been implemented meaning pitchers will have less time in between pitches to collect themselves. Another thing that is new is the bases are now a few inches bigger. Onye time will tell if this has any true impact on the game as I think it could go either way. Tagging runners out may become easier but reaching bases faster could also happen from the offense's perspective. Finally, the shift has been banned. Managers will be limited to where they position fielders which takes a bit of the analytics out of the game.
We all know that baseball has been falling out of the public eye the last decade or two, and the MLB is aware of this. These rules all lean towards more scoring which is what draws attention. What bettors need to be aware of is everyone knows that there will be more scoring, so odds makers will surely skew the lines. If an over is set at 9.5 runs, the is now shame in adjusting the line to 7.5 and playing it safe or maybe even pairing that bet with another similar line to get plus money rolling.
Before I give out my own hand selected picks, I want to share a QSGP, or Quick Same Game Parlay offered on DraftKings Sportsbook. These are premade parlays that are offered as fliers for maybe a small one-unit bet. For today's game between the Phillies and the Rangers, you can bet:
-Aaron Nola 5+ strikeouts
-Trae Turner to hit a single
-Kyle Schwarber 1+ RBIs
@ +525 odds
They are also offering a few other deals like a 100% insurance bet up to $10 if your bet loses, Ohtani to record a hit boosted to +100, and parlay percentage boosts. I'm personally riding the same game parlay in the Phillies-Rangers game I have listed above with a 20% boost to take it to +630.
Now for my picks! Since its opening day and theirs new faces, new rules, and lots of uncertainty, I won't be breaking each pick down like I did for the NBA on my first post. In the future when we're a couple games in and I have more stats and analytics to base my picks on, Ill share my research for you to form your own opinion.
SF Giants @ NY Yankees 1:05 pm
Yankees ML -180
Yankees -1.5 +130
Giants ML +160
Giants +1.5 -160
Over 6.5 -125
Under 6.5 -105
The Yankees are notorious for scoring at home, and a total set at 6.5 it feels so easy to take the over. Wrong. The Yankees are putting Garret Cole on the mound for opening day and as one of the premier pitchers the league has to offer, expect an all-star performance. I would love to take his over in strike outs but with the new pitch clock rule, it feels too risky. I'm riding under 6.5 runs scored @ -105 and hoping that the Giants defense is able to hold the Yankees around 3 runs.
BAL Orioles @ BOS Red Sox 2:10 pm
Red Sox ML -125
Red Sox -1.5 +155
Orioles ML +105
Orioles +1.5 -180
Over 8.5 -115
Under 8.5 -105
I've been talking to a few MLB enthusiasts and the consensus is that the Orioles are an improved and underrated team going into this season. This game is a close call in the books, and for a good reason. The Orioles money line is set very low to +105 and as tempting as it is, we must take the safe route. The O's are a fun opening day road dog for a teaser money line, but guaranteed money lays in Orioles +1.5 @ -180.
I know it's a bit under whelming giving out only two picks for opening day, but I'm not a baseball wizard, I'm a gambler. The only thing that matters is winning the bets, and that's what we're here to do.
1 unit QSGP presented by DraftKings Sportsbook @+525 (net 10.6 units)
2 units on under 6.5 total runs in Yankees-Giants @-105 (net 1.8 units)
2 units on Orioles +1.5 @-180 (net 1.1 units)
